Hermine Drifts East, NJ Avoids the Worst

September 4, 2016 | Weather
College of DuPage

By John Cifelli
NJTV News Meteorologist

– Coastal Flooding, Beach Erosion Remain Biggest Threat
– Threat of Heavy Rain Now Gone
– Hermine’s Exit Brings a Heat Wave

Overnight, Hermine continued her eastward progression. In fact, the satellite imagery this morning shows the storm still has yet to gain much of a northward component to its track. Accordingly, clouds are confined to the immediate coast and rain is confined offshore. Hermine is still expected to turn north and bend back toward the coast, but it is occurring 100 to 150 miles further east than expected. Not only does that mean that the rain and strongest winds will remain offshore, but the direction of the wind in Cape May, Atlantic City and Seaside will be more northerly and less easterly over the next couple of days. This allows for more drainage of water from the bays and tidal rivers during low tides, so even the threat of coastal flooding is reduced.

West of the Parkway, don’t expect more than a stray shower and a fair breeze. All things considered, the rest of the weekend remains comfortable and pleasant. Along the coast, there’s still going to be more consistent cloud cover and periods of rain, especially late tonight and tomorrow. However, the concerns about significant rainfall are over with Hermine remaining too far east.

The biggest impact therefore remains moderate coastal flooding with tonight and tomorrow’s high tide cycles, between 10 and 11 o’clock, a.m. and p.m. Monday morning’s high tide in particular is expected to bring water levels to moderate or major flood status. Any further eastward motion by Hermine today would help New Jersey’s coastal communities avoid this. I am concerned that the fair skies today are going to allow coastal residents and holiday visitors to lower their guard, and they should not. The flooding potential is still real and still dangerous. Heavy surf with beach erosion is also going to wreak havoc on the coastline. Although the sun is shining at some beaches this morning, it’s no beach day, with wind-whipped sand, riptides and dangerous high tides.

The one blessing Hermine has brought New Jersey is an air mass and wind flow helping to stave off a coming heat wave for a couple days. Labor Day, temperatures will remain in the low 80s, but Wednesday through the weekend will see temperatures approach or exceed 90 degrees.