28%

January 21, 2020 | Number of The Day
Percentage of NJ voters who opt for Joe Biden among Democratic presidential candidates

New Jersey’s Democratic presidential primary is not until June 2 and we know that a lot could happen on the hustings between now and then. In the meantime, Emerson College Polling has taken a snapshot of where the remaining Democratic candidates stand with Garden State voters. Data for the poll was collected from Jan. 16 to 19. Main takeaways? Former Vice President Joe Biden leads in New Jersey, with 28% of the vote, followed closely by Sen. Bernie Sanders (25%), then Sen. Elizabeth Warren (15%) and Michael Bloomberg (9%). Lagging are Pete Buttigieg and Andy Yang (both at 6%), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (4%), Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (3%) and Congressman John Delaney (2%). While the poll finds zero support for Sen. Michael Bennet, Tom Steyer and Deval Patrick, it registers 2% support for “Someone else.”

There’s a striking generation gap between Biden and Sanders voters. Biden is popular with baby boomers, taking 40% of the over-50 vote, but he manages only 9% among those in the 18-29 age group. That script flips in the case of Sanders, who takes 36% of the under-50 vote but only 7% among his over-65 peers. Warren is the third most popular candidate in all four age groups with a range of support between 12% to 22%.

Biden leads overall among female voters (29%), followed by Sanders (22%), then Warren (19%). Among males, the vote splits Sanders (28%), Biden (27%) and Warren (11%). Among Hispanic voters, Sanders leads (31%), followed by Warren (28%), and Biden with (16%). Biden has a substantial lead among African American voters (47%), followed by Warren (17%) and Sanders (14%). Support among white voters breaks toward Sanders (27%), Biden (23%) and Warren (13%).

A majority of voters (55%) expect Biden to be the nominee. Sanders is the next expected choice (22%), then Warren (10%). About half of Democratic primary voters (48%) say they will definitely vote for the candidate they prefer now, while 52% indicate they could change their mind and vote for another candidate by June.