April 17, 2018 | Number of The Day
Number of points by which NJ Democrats lead Republicans in congressional races

New Jersey, a “blue” state, could become even bluer by the time the votes are tallied in the fall congressional elections. A new Monmouth University Poll gives Democrats a 19-point advantage over Republicans in a generic House ballot. If that held true in the elections, it could sweep all the state’s five Republican-held congressional seats into the Democratic column. In the poll, 54 percent of New Jersey’s registered voters said they would vote or lean toward voting for the Democratic candidate in their district compared with 35 percent favoring the Republican. One month ago, New Jersey voters favored Democrats over Republicans by a smaller margin — (50 percent-41 percent), the same polling organization found.

This latest poll suggests that President Donald Trump is the biggest drag on the Garden State’s GOP delegates’ prospects of returning to Washington, D.C. A scant 34 percent of voters approved of the president’s job performance compared with 61 percent who disapproved. He did somewhat better in the state’s GOP-held congressional districts (43 percent approved, 53 percent disapproved).

Another negative for voters was the GOP’s recently enacted federal tax reform (35 percent approved, 46 percent disapproved). This marks a bigger thumbs-down for the tax changes than the Monmouth poll registered last month among voters nationally (41 percent approved, 42 percent disapproved).

The latest poll numbers are “pretty astounding,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said. “Not only are New Jersey Democrats doing better on the generic House ballot statewide, but the shift is coming almost entirely from districts currently held by the GOP. If these results hold, we could be down to just one or two — or maybe even zero — Republican members in the state congressional delegation after November.”