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June 28, 2018

The race to fill New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District seat is whisker close, according to yesterday’s Monmouth University Poll, with Democrat Mikie Sherrill at 40 percent to Republican state Assemblyman Jay Webber’s 38 percent.

Twenty percent of likely voters are undecided. Likely voters are those who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered (a group representing about 84 percent of all registered voters in the district).

Among all potential voters, Sherrill has stronger support among fellow Democrats (92 percent to 1 percent for Webber) than the assemblyman has among his fellow Republicans (78 percent to 6 percent for Sherrill). The two are basically tied among independents at 32 percent for Sherrill and 31 percent for Webber.

Neither candidate is particularly well known at this point. Sherrill has a rating of 31 percent favorable, 7 percent unfavorable, and 62 percent no opinion. Webber has a 22 percent favorable, 12 percent unfavorable, and 66 percent no-opinion rating.

That partisan enthusiasm gap is making this traditionally Republican district competitive for the first time in decades. A majority of all voters (55 percent) have a lot of interest in this election, but self-identified Democrats (67 percent) are significantly more likely than Republicans (48 percent) to feel that way.

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